IATA projects airline profits will reach $36 billion in 2025—$600 million less than previously expected—while total revenues are set to hit $979 billion, falling short of the earlier $1 trillion estimate.

Speaking at IATA’s annual meeting in New Delhi, Director General Willie Walsh warned of mounting economic headwinds, including rising tariffs and geopolitical tensions.

"It’s still a thin buffer and any new tax, increase in airport or navigation charge, demand shock or costly regulation will quickly put the industry’s resilience to the test," he said.

Air cargo is also expected to slow, with 69 million tonnes forecast this year—down from 72.5 million. Trade tensions, including recent U.S. tariff moves, are partly to blame.

On the bright side, lower oil prices could ease pressure on airlines. Jet fuel is expected to average $86 a barrel, significantly below the $99 average in 2024, helping to reduce the sector’s fuel bill by $25 billion.

IATA urged policymakers to consider aviation’s vital role in global employment and economic activity, warning that increased regulation or taxes could hinder recovery.

Global airlines are expected to carry fewer than 5 billion passengers in 2025, down from an earlier forecast of 5.22 billion, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Despite economic challenges, IATA says the aviation industry remains resilient.