According to veteran war reporter Marc Hoogsteyns, while the situation in Goma has stabilized, the local population remains divided. Some residents have welcomed M23’s rule, while others remain skeptical.

Despite these tensions, M23 has moved quickly to establish order, clearing bodies from the streets and setting up a new administration.

Unlike their brief occupation of Goma in 2012, M23 is now more organized and better equipped. Their leadership views this moment as an opportunity to push for the return of displaced communities from Rwanda, Uganda, and beyond.

At the beginning, their immediate goal was to reclaim lands in Masisi and Rutshuru, but their preceding movements suggested otherwise. Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu, is now also under their control.

M23’s rapid gains have exposed deep flaws in Kinshasa’s military strategy. The Congolese army (FARDC), alongside its allies, including the FDLR and Wazalendo militias, failed to mount effective resistance.

Key positions fell one after another, from Bunagana to Rutshuru, leaving government forces retreating south. M23’s capture of Kavumu Airport, a critical transport hub, further strengthened their hold on the region.

The Congolese government has consistently blamed Rwanda for supporting M23, an allegation Kigali denies. Meanwhile, Kinshasa’s decision to integrate FDLR fighters into its ranks has fueled further instability, as the group has a history of targeting ethnic Tutsis.

President Félix Tshisekedi’s approach, arming local militias and delaying negotiations, has only deepened divisions, making the prospect of a military comeback increasingly unlikely.

The future of M23’s rule in the Kivu region depends on their ability to transition from military occupation to effective governance.

While they have shown discipline on the battlefield, running a city of Goma’s size presents new challenges. Security remains a major concern, with reports of looting and violence in the early days of their takeover. However, order is gradually being restored.

The international response remains uncertain. While Kinshasa continues to call for military intervention, M23’s rapid advances suggest that diplomatic engagement may be the only viable solution. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the Congolese government pursues negotiations or attempts another military campaign.

For now, Goma is firmly in M23’s hands. Whether their control extends further into South Kivu remains to be seen. As tensions persist, the people of eastern Congo remain caught in the middle, hoping for peace but bracing for more conflict.