Dr. Ryan said that while cases are declining in many countries, they are still increasing in Central and South America, South Asia among others.
He remarked that epidemics often come in waves, which means that outbreaks could come back later this year in places where the first wave has subsided. Dr. Ryan said that there is also a chance that infection rates could rise again more quickly if measures to halt the first wave were lifted too soon.
“When we speak about a second wave, classically what we often mean is there will be a first wave of the disease by itself, and then it recurs months later. And that may be a reality for many countries in a few months’ time,” Ryan said.
“But we need also to be cognizant of the fact that the disease can jump up at any time. We cannot make assumptions that just because the disease is on the way down now it is going to keep going down. We may get a second peak.”
Alternatively, countries should continue to put in place the public health and social measures, the surveillance measures, the testing measures and a comprehensive strategy to ensure that we continue on a downwards trajectory and we don’t have an immediate second peak,” he said.